Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.1 – 146.98

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.6 ±11.6

4911CyberKnights

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 25.64Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2557SOTAbots

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 17.96Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 23.5Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.6 ±11.6

8302⚡️ Ｎｉ-ＴＲＯ ⚡️

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 19.22Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3393Horns of Havoc

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 32.43Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 95.33Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4911, 2557, 10416

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4911, 2557, 10416

Auto

9.8 15%

Teleop

42.4 65%

Endgame

12.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8302, 3393, 492

/ 100 compat

Projected

147 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8302, 3393, 492

Auto

33.2 22%

Teleop

85.6 58%

Endgame

29.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.1pts

Blue projected score147pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.9
Score range: 45–169
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 119.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309.6Season APEX230.6

9.8Auto33.2

42.4Teleop85.6

12.9Endgame29.1

37Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	46
teleop	40	60
endgame	36	21
foul	5	0
total	94	127

Result

Final score

94 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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