Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.03 – 242.15

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.7 ±12.7

2929Emeral Ridge JAGBOTS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 10.14Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5588Reign Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 26.73Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7461Sushi Squad

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 60.16Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 469.9 ±9.8

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 67.88Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 94.55Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 79.72Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2929, 5588, 7461

/ 100 compat

Projected

97 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2929, 5588, 7461

Auto

20.1 22%

Teleop

69.9 76%

Endgame

2.1 2%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1318, 3218, 9450

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1318, 3218, 9450

Auto

46.1 19%

Teleop

139.3 57%

Endgame

57.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97pts

Blue projected score242.2pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -145.1
Score range: 76–263
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 118.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.7Season APEX469.9

20.1Auto46.1

69.9Teleop139.3

2.1Endgame57.9

4Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	34
teleop	18	169
endgame	9	56
foul	0	0
total	44	259

Result

Final score

44 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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