Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.05 – 118.67

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

182 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 43.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360.5 ±11.1

4980Canine Crusaders

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 54.34Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX 6.85Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 120.86Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.5 ±11.2

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 73.42Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 32.3Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8303GatorBytes

Season APEX 31.7Event APEX 12.95Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4980, 5941, 360

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4980, 5941, 360

Auto

36.4 21%

Teleop

103.8 59%

Endgame

36.5 21%

Strengths

· 360 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2412, 8248, 8303

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2412, 8248, 8303

Auto

21.0 17%

Teleop

80.5 65%

Endgame

21.7 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.1pts

Blue projected score118.7pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.4
Score range: 98–203
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 117.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360.5Season APEX377.5

36.4Auto21

103.8Teleop80.5

36.5Endgame21.7

2Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	23
teleop	97	87
endgame	38	90
foul	0	5
total	182	205

Result

Final score

182 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 43.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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