Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.1 – 66.22

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

181 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 356.9 ±11.7

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 62.48Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10455Bison Dynamics

Season APEX 89Event APEX -20.88Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 89.5Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.5 ±12.7

9446C Cubed

Season APEX 71.3Event APEX 36.66Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4911CyberKnights

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 27.45Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5683R.A.V.E.N.

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX 2.11Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1318, 10455, 492

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1318, 10455, 492

Auto

41.9 32%

Teleop

62.7 48%

Endgame

26.2 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9446, 4911, 5683

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9446, 4911, 5683

Auto

13.4 21%

Teleop

25.2 39%

Endgame

26.0 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.1pts

Blue projected score66.2pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.9
Score range: 45–152
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 119.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

356.9Season APEX192.5

41.9Auto13.4

62.7Teleop25.2

26.2Endgame26

18Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	1
teleop	122	30
endgame	20	32
foul	0	0
total	181	63

Result

Final score

181 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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