Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.28 – 151.12

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 512 ±9.9

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 7.89Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5588Reign Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 22.47Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 76.92Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.2 ±9.8

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX -8.64Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 89.01Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 70.75Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4450, 5588, 9450

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4450, 5588, 9450

Auto

23.5 23%

Teleop

59.8 60%

Endgame

17.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8896, 3218, 2412

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8896, 3218, 2412

Auto

23.8 16%

Teleop

89.2 60%

Endgame

35.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.3pts

Blue projected score151.1pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.8
Score range: 86–172
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 114.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

512Season APEX434.2

23.5Auto23.8

59.8Teleop89.2

17.1Endgame35.8

15Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	26
teleop	99	121
endgame	11	54
foul	0	0
total	143	201

Result

Final score

143 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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