Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.73 – 45

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 483.9 ±10

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 6.39Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX 2.09Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 156.25Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.8 ±12.7

2557SOTAbots

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 19.81Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10423CB Tech

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX -7.65Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3393Horns of Havoc

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 32.84Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1983, 5941, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1983, 5941, 2046

Auto

43.7 27%

Teleop

80.5 50%

Endgame

35.9 22%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2557, 10423, 3393

/ 100 compat

Projected

45 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2557, 10423, 3393

Auto

8.3 19%

Teleop

27.4 63%

Endgame

7.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score164.7pts

Blue projected score45pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.7
Score range: 24–186
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 114.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

483.9Season APEX190.8

43.7Auto8.3

80.5Teleop27.4

35.9Endgame7.8

20Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	1
teleop	94	24
endgame	46	29
foul	0	5
total	194	59

Result

Final score

194 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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