Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.38 – 238.03

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.8 ±11.7

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 24.38Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2929Emeral Ridge JAGBOTS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX -5.9Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2976The Spartabots

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 14.9Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 503.8 ±10.5

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 66.68Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 152.71Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2928Viking Robotics

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 18.64Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10416, 2929, 2976

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10416, 2929, 2976

Auto

9.9 28%

Teleop

24.8 71%

Endgame

0.4 1%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1318, 948, 2928

/ 100 compat

Projected

238 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1318, 948, 2928

Auto

41.7 18%

Teleop

121.4 52%

Endgame

70.5 30%

Strengths

· 948 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.55 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score33.4pts

Blue projected score238pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -204.6
Score range: 13–258
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 113.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.8Season APEX503.8

9.9Auto41.7

24.8Teleop121.4

0.4Endgame70.5

20Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	56
teleop	42	160
endgame	9	51
foul	0	0
total	61	267

Result

Final score

61 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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