Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.5 – 137.37

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 44.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153 ±12.7

2557SOTAbots

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 27.37Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6350Clawbots

Season APEX 30.1Event APEX 5.05Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4980Canine Crusaders

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 49.08Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 495.5 ±11.4

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 153.73Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10455Bison Dynamics

Season APEX 89Event APEX -2.3Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5588Reign Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX -14.06Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2557, 6350, 4980

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2557, 6350, 4980

Auto

14.2 18%

Teleop

42.9 54%

Endgame

21.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2046, 10455, 5588

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2046, 10455, 5588

Auto

40.9 31%

Teleop

64.3 49%

Endgame

24.8 19%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.5pts

Blue projected score137.4pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.9
Score range: 57–162
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 223 vs event baseline 141.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153Season APEX495.5

14.2Auto40.9

42.9Teleop64.3

21.9Endgame24.8

27Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	41
teleop	23	111
endgame	6	7
foul	5	25
total	39	184

Result

Final score

39 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 44.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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