Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

247.85 – 255.15

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 122.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.3 ±11.7

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 179.45Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4911CyberKnights

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 56.24Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3049BremerTron

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 12.16Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 638.4 ±8.8

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 96.84Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 1.1Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 157.21Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 948, 4911, 3049

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 948, 4911, 3049

Auto

27.5 11%

Teleop

140.3 58%

Endgame

74.2 31%

Strengths

· 948 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9450, 8896, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9450, 8896, 2046

Auto

47.0 19%

Teleop

144.9 58%

Endgame

58.0 23%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score247.9pts

Blue projected score255.2pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.3
Score range: 228–275
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 112.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.3Season APEX638.4

27.5Auto47

140.3Teleop144.9

74.2Endgame58

0Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	56
teleop	47	53
endgame	25	45
foul	5	15
total	89	169

Result

Final score

89 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 122.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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