Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.86 – 114.06

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 49.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 424.7 ±11.7

2906Sentinel Prime Robotics

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX -3.2Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 99.75Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2557SOTAbots

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 9.31Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.8 ±11.6

5683R.A.V.E.N.

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX -0.21Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 65.13Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4980Canine Crusaders

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 49.14Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2906, 360, 2557

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2906, 360, 2557

Auto

22.6 22%

Teleop

62.5 62%

Endgame

16.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5683, 1318, 4980

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5683, 1318, 4980

Auto

38.2 33%

Teleop

51.8 45%

Endgame

24.1 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.9pts

Blue projected score114.1pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.2
Score range: 86–134
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 286 vs event baseline 111.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

424.7Season APEX208.8

22.6Auto38.2

62.5Teleop51.8

16.1Endgame24.1

113Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	34
teleop	101	28
endgame	45	36
foul	5	0
total	188	98

Result

Final score

188 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 49.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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