Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.51 – 37.62

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 276.4 ±11

3393Horns of Havoc

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 15.46Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 106.49Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 5.56Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.1 ±12.2

2976The Spartabots

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 18.46Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8302⚡️ Ｎｉ-ＴＲＯ ⚡️

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 7.56Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2927NEST Robotics

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 11.6Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3393, 3218, 1983

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3393, 3218, 1983

Auto

15.9 12%

Teleop

64.6 50%

Endgame

47.7 37%

Strengths

· 3218 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2976, 8302, 2927

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2976, 8302, 2927

Auto

8.2 23%

Teleop

11.3 31%

Endgame

16.7 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.5pts

Blue projected score37.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 89.9
Score range: 18–148
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 111.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

276.4Season APEX202.1

15.9Auto8.2

64.6Teleop11.3

47.7Endgame16.7

0Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	7
teleop	106	22
endgame	47	5
foul	0	0
total	175	34

Result

Final score

175 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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