Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.83 – 79.97

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 63.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443.6 ±10.5

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 35.74Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 53.41Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4911CyberKnights

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 41.68Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.8 ±11.6

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 96.63Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5683R.A.V.E.N.

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX -9.1Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2928Viking Robotics

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX -7.56Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2412, 1318, 4911

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2412, 1318, 4911

Auto

34.3 26%

Teleop

65.5 49%

Endgame

34.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3218, 5683, 2928

/ 100 compat

Projected

80 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3218, 5683, 2928

Auto

10.4 12%

Teleop

36.5 44%

Endgame

36.9 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.8pts

Blue projected score80pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.9
Score range: 60–151
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 110.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443.6Season APEX251.8

34.3Auto10.4

65.5Teleop36.5

34.7Endgame36.9

37Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	35
teleop	127	51
endgame	33	42
foul	0	5
total	204	133

Result

Final score

204 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 63.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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