Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.74 – 126.08

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

253 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430 ±10.5

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 174.87Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4980Canine Crusaders

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 51.32Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 3.55Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420 ±11.2

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 72.49Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2927NEST Robotics

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 24.4Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 29.19Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 948, 4980, 1983

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 948, 4980, 1983

Auto

36.6 16%

Teleop

128.5 57%

Endgame

60.0 27%

Strengths

· 948 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 492, 2927, 4450

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 492, 2927, 4450

Auto

42.0 34%

Teleop

65.9 53%

Endgame

16.3 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score229.7pts

Blue projected score126.1pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103.7
Score range: 107–249
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 107.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430Season APEX420

36.6Auto42

128.5Teleop65.9

60Endgame16.3

0Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	18
teleop	140	55
endgame	62	44
foul	5	0
total	253	117

Result

Final score

253 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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