Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.49 – 47.92

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

120 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 47.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.1 ±11.7

6350Clawbots

Season APEX 30.1Event APEX 2.3Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 17.79Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 19.4Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.1 ±12.2

2147CHUCK

Season APEX 95.5Event APEX 18.95Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10423CB Tech

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 23.3Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 5.67Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6350, 8248, 10416

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6350, 8248, 10416

Auto

7.6 19%

Teleop

23.7 60%

Endgame

8.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2147, 10423, 8896

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2147, 10423, 8896

Auto

4.3 9%

Teleop

23.3 50%

Endgame

19.2 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score39.5pts

Blue projected score47.9pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.4
Score range: 19–68
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 109.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.1Season APEX258.1

7.6Auto4.3

23.7Teleop23.3

8.5Endgame19.2

74Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	2
teleop	76	21
endgame	28	10
foul	0	0
total	120	33

Result

Final score

120 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 47.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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