Qualification · Qualification 23
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
25.83 – 21.52
51%49%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
53 – 39
Prediction correct · off by 22.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.9 ±12.7
Season APEX 89Event APEX -12.23Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 93.8Event APEX -6.83Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 44.89Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.4 ±13.3
Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 14.81Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 5.44Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 1.27Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10455, 2928, 4980
10
/ 100 compatProjected
25.8 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 10455, 2928, 4980
Auto
13.5 68%
Teleop
18.8 94%
Endgame
-12.3 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3049, 2929, 8302
8
/ 100 compatProjected
21.5 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 3049, 2929, 8302
Auto
16.5 98%
Teleop
9.6 57%
Endgame
-9.2 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.32
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score25.8pts
Blue projected score21.5pts
Red win probability51%
Event bonus sample168alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 37%, blue 30%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 4.3
- Score range
- 2–46
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
234.9Season APEX184.4
13.5Auto16.5
18.8Teleop9.6
-12.3Endgame-9.2
85Consistency43
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 22 | 9 |
| teleop | 26 | 24 |
| endgame | 5 | 6 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 53 | 39 |
Result
Final score
53 – 39
Prediction correct · off by 22.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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