Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

65.2 – 53.75

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.5 ±12.8

2927NEST Robotics

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 6.03Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9446C Cubed

Season APEX 71.3Event APEX 16.69Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 42.48Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.6 ±11.7

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 36.06Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX 3.9Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8303GatorBytes

Season APEX 31.7Event APEX 13.79Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2927, 9446, 1318

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2927, 9446, 1318

Auto

22.7 34%

Teleop

37.6 57%

Endgame

6.1 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4450, 5941, 8303

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4450, 5941, 8303

Auto

13.4 26%

Teleop

22.2 43%

Endgame

16.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.2pts

Blue projected score53.8pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.5
Score range: 34–85
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 172 vs event baseline 113.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.5Season APEX316.6

22.7Auto13.4

37.6Teleop22.2

6.1Endgame16.3

65Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	9
teleop	62	12
endgame	58	8
foul	0	0
total	143	29

Result

Final score

143 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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