Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

233.73 – 194.43

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

184 – 197

Prediction missed · off by 26.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 653.3 ±9.3

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 115.01Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 70Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 48.72Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411 ±11.7

2906Sentinel Prime Robotics

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 13.76Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8302⚡️ Ｎｉ-ＴＲＯ ⚡️

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 21.44Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 159.23Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 360, 1318, 4450

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 360, 1318, 4450

Auto

49.3 21%

Teleop

123.9 54%

Endgame

56.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2906, 8302, 948

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2906, 8302, 948

Auto

31.9 17%

Teleop

109.0 59%

Endgame

44.8 24%

Strengths

· 948 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score233.7pts

Blue projected score194.4pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.3
Score range: 169–259
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 381 vs event baseline 141.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

653.3Season APEX411

49.3Auto31.9

123.9Teleop109

56.3Endgame44.8

39Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	39
teleop	108	100
endgame	30	43
foul	0	15
total	184	197

Result

Final score

184 – 197

Prediction missed · off by 26.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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