Qualification · Qualification 16
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
32.54 – 28.49
51%49%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
18 – 76
Prediction missed · off by 31 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.1 ±12.8
Season APEX 31.7Event APEX 6.48Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 89Event APEX 30.14Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 115.4Event APEX -4.08Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.9 ±11.7
Season APEX 85.8Event APEX -1.52Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 63.1Event APEX -5.22Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 132Event APEX 35.23Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8303, 10455, 2976
23
/ 100 compatProjected
32.5 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 8303, 10455, 2976
Auto
5.6 23%
Teleop
22.5 93%
Endgame
-4.0 0%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8896, 2929, 1318
19
/ 100 compatProjected
28.5 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 8896, 2929, 1318
Auto
12.6 45%
Teleop
22.0 79%
Endgame
-6.6 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.33
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score32.5pts
Blue projected score28.5pts
Red win probability51%
Event bonus sample168alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 34%, blue 31%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 4.1
- Score range
- 8–53
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
236.1Season APEX280.9
5.6Auto12.6
22.5Teleop22
-4Endgame-6.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 7 | 24 |
| teleop | 1 | 35 |
| endgame | 10 | 17 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 18 | 76 |
Result
Final score
18 – 76
Prediction missed · off by 31 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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