Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
228.97 – 62.08
89%11%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
385 – 72
Prediction correct · off by 83 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 841.1 ±8.1
Season APEX 278Event APEX 100.96Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 348Event APEX 95.21Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 32.8Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.2 ±12.7
Season APEX 95.5Event APEX 3.48Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 21.79Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 36.81Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 948, 2046, 2412
88
/ 100 compatProjected
229 pts
~2.4 RP (district)
Teams: 948, 2046, 2412
Auto
46.5 22%
Teleop
129.1 60%
Endgame
40.2 19%
Strengths
- · 948 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2147, 2927, 4911
46
/ 100 compatProjected
62.1 pts
~0.6 RP (district)
Teams: 2147, 2927, 4911
Auto
4.4 7%
Teleop
29.4 45%
Endgame
30.9 48%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.58
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score229pts
Blue projected score62.1pts
Red win probability89%
Event bonus sample168alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 30%
Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 166.9
- Score range
- 44–247
- Upset likelihood
- 11%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
841.1Season APEX227.2
46.5Auto4.4
129.1Teleop29.4
40.2Endgame30.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 74 | 8 |
| teleop | 231 | 37 |
| endgame | 80 | 27 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 385 | 72 |
Result
Final score
385 – 72
Prediction correct · off by 83 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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