Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

96.72 – 9.61

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

243 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 104.8 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446.9 ±11.7

7461Sushi Squad

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX -Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 66.42Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10423CB Tech

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX -Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349 ±11.7

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 18.11Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2557SOTAbots

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX -4.56Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2929Emeral Ridge JAGBOTS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX -3.94Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7461, 948, 10423

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7461, 948, 10423

Auto

22.4 25%

Teleop

49.2 54%

Endgame

19.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2412, 2557, 2929

/ 100 compat

Projected

9.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2412, 2557, 2929

Auto

3.0 77%

Teleop

-1.9 0%

Endgame

2.8 72%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.7pts

Blue projected score9.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.1
Score range: -6–113
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 90.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446.9Season APEX349

13.3Auto3

34Teleop-1.9

13.4Endgame2.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	18
teleop	157	55
endgame	43	0
foul	10	0
total	243	73

Result

Final score

243 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 104.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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