Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

152.42 – 189.22

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.5 ±11.7

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 40.48Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 91.59Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9446C Cubed

Season APEX 71.3Event APEX 20.35Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455.7 ±9.9

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 88.65Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 82.36Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX 18.21Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10416, 492, 9446

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10416, 492, 9446

Auto

32.8 22%

Teleop

86.2 57%

Endgame

31.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2412, 9450, 5941

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2412, 9450, 5941

Auto

36.0 19%

Teleop

115.9 61%

Endgame

39.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score152.4pts

Blue projected score189.2pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.8
Score range: 127–214
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 141.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.5Season APEX455.7

32.8Auto36

86.2Teleop115.9

31Endgame39.2

19Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	24
teleop	63	58
endgame	1	26
foul	0	0
total	101	108

Result

Final score

101 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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