Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.99 – 200.2

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

259 – 296

Prediction missed · off by 54.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.2 ±11

4682CyBears

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 11.58Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 121.2Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 112.21Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.9 ±10.5

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 82.25Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5683R.A.V.E.N.

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX 11.79Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 106.16Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4682, 10079, 3663

/ 100 compat

Projected

245 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4682, 10079, 3663

Auto

70.7 28%

Teleop

137.1 55%

Endgame

42.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8051, 5683, 4450

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8051, 5683, 4450

Auto

38.7 20%

Teleop

112.7 59%

Endgame

41.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score245pts

Blue projected score200.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.8
Score range: 163–282
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 555 vs event baseline 206.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.2Season APEX421.9

70.7Auto38.7

137.1Teleop112.7

42Endgame41.2

20Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	52
teleop	138	111
endgame	30	73
foul	0	60
total	259	296

Result

Final score

259 – 296

Prediction missed · off by 54.9 pts

Match videos

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