Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

519.68 – 246.52

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

507 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 9.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 691.7 ±9.8

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 202.12Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 275.78Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3049BremerTron

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 41.78Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.2 ±11

4682CyBears

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 12.21Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 122Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 112.31Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9023, 2046, 3049

/ 100 compat

Projected

519.7 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9023, 2046, 3049

Auto

95.4 19%

Teleop

302.5 59%

Endgame

113.7 22%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4682, 10079, 3663

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4682, 10079, 3663

Auto

70.0 28%

Teleop

140.7 56%

Endgame

42.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.68 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score519.7pts

Blue projected score246.5pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 273.2
Score range: 211–556
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 747 vs event baseline 201.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

691.7Season APEX354.2

95.4Auto70

302.5Teleop140.7

113.7Endgame42.8

5Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	109	75
teleop	251	119
endgame	142	41
foul	5	5
total	507	240

Result

Final score

507 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 9.6 pts

Match videos

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