Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.13 – 181.33

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 296

Prediction correct · off by 58.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.5 ±13.3

4173Bark Bots

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 49.64Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2906Sentinel Prime Robotics

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 23.44Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3070Team Pronto 3070

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 17.05Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.9 ±10.5

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 76.16Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5683R.A.V.E.N.

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX 4.9Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 100.27Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4173, 2906, 3070

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4173, 2906, 3070

Auto

30.8 34%

Teleop

46.0 51%

Endgame

14.2 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8051, 5683, 4450

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8051, 5683, 4450

Auto

36.5 20%

Teleop

101.3 57%

Endgame

40.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.1pts

Blue projected score181.3pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -91.2
Score range: 54–217
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 201.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.5Season APEX421.9

30.8Auto36.5

46Teleop101.3

14.2Endgame40.9

37Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	53
teleop	43	168
endgame	19	45
foul	0	30
total	93	296

Result

Final score

93 – 296

Prediction correct · off by 58.8 pts

Match videos

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