Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

138.1 – 232.84

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

120 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.6 ±12.7

7627Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 53.42Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

949Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 107.3Event APEX 49Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 35.68Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 718.8 ±9.9

3393Horns of Havoc

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 10.94Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 59.68Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 162.22Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7627, 949, 3786

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7627, 949, 3786

Auto

39.1 31%

Teleop

53.4 42%

Endgame

33.8 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3393, 2910, 4469

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3393, 2910, 4469

Auto

35.8 16%

Teleop

132.8 58%

Endgame

59.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.1pts

Blue projected score232.8pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.7
Score range: 102–269
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 201.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.6Season APEX718.8

39.1Auto35.8

53.4Teleop132.8

33.8Endgame59.4

50Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	51
teleop	40	143
endgame	39	49
foul	5	25
total	120	268

Result

Final score

120 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Match videos

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