Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

260.06 – 167.87

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

394 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 104 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.3 ±11.7

2929Emeral Ridge JAGBOTS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 3.18Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 121.8Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 135.08Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.9 ±10.5

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 71.82Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5683R.A.V.E.N.

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX -0.39Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 96.44Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2929, 4512, 1778

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2929, 4512, 1778

Auto

41.8 17%

Teleop

127.8 52%

Endgame

76.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8051, 5683, 4450

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8051, 5683, 4450

Auto

31.0 19%

Teleop

96.0 58%

Endgame

37.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score260.1pts

Blue projected score167.9pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.2
Score range: 132–296
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 636 vs event baseline 200.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.3Season APEX421.9

41.8Auto31

127.8Teleop96

76.4Endgame37.5

30Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	60
teleop	218	127
endgame	98	55
foul	5	0
total	394	242

Result

Final score

394 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 104 pts

Match videos

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