Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
359.28 – 83.36
97%3%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
404 – 125
Prediction correct · off by 43.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 583.5 ±9.9
Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 176.94Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 177.56Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 43Event APEX 4.78Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.5 ±13.3
Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 46.31Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 22.31Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 14.74Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 360, 4089, 3574
82
/ 100 compatProjected
359.3 pts
~2.6 RP (district)
Teams: 360, 4089, 3574
Auto
77.4 22%
Teleop
200.8 56%
Endgame
78.1 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 9%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4173, 2906, 3070
35
/ 100 compatProjected
83.4 pts
~0.7 RP (district)
Teams: 4173, 2906, 3070
Auto
33.6 40%
Teleop
36.1 43%
Endgame
14.5 17%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 9%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.67
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score359.3pts
Blue projected score83.4pts
Red win probability97%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 57%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 275.9
- Score range
- 47–395
- Upset likelihood
- 3%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
583.5Season APEX210.5
77.4Auto33.6
200.8Teleop36.1
78.1Endgame14.5
10Consistency30
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 83 | 22 |
| teleop | 216 | 89 |
| endgame | 90 | 14 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 404 | 125 |
Result
Final score
404 – 125
Prediction correct · off by 43.2 pts
Match videos
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