Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

477.67 – 138.34

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

459 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 707.7 ±8.2

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 205.02Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 278.22Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX -5.57Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.6 ±12.7

7627Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 52.79Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

949Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 107.3Event APEX 49.69Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 35.86Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9023, 2046, 8896

/ 100 compat

Projected

477.7 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9023, 2046, 8896

Auto

91.7 20%

Teleop

272.8 60%

Endgame

93.9 20%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7627, 949, 3786

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7627, 949, 3786

Auto

36.3 28%

Teleop

56.5 43%

Endgame

38.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.69 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score477.7pts

Blue projected score138.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 339.3
Score range: 102–514
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 599 vs event baseline 198.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

707.7Season APEX258.6

91.7Auto36.3

272.8Teleop56.5

93.9Endgame38

0Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	55
teleop	236	40
endgame	102	15
foul	10	30
total	459	140

Result

Final score

459 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 pts

Match videos

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