Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

463.11 – 266.48

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

537 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 707.7 ±8.2

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 199.85Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 273.19Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX -9.93Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 718.8 ±9.9

3393Horns of Havoc

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 21.72Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 172.89Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 71.87Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9023, 2046, 8896

/ 100 compat

Projected

463.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9023, 2046, 8896

Auto

94.8 21%

Teleop

253.1 57%

Endgame

97.0 22%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3393, 4469, 2910

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3393, 4469, 2910

Auto

43.2 17%

Teleop

157.1 60%

Endgame

60.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score463.1pts

Blue projected score266.5pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 196.6
Score range: 228–501
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 886 vs event baseline 212.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

707.7Season APEX718.8

94.8Auto43.2

253.1Teleop157.1

97Endgame60.6

4Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	128	65
teleop	302	178
endgame	107	96
foul	0	10
total	537	349

Result

Final score

537 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 pts

Match videos

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