Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

248.68 – 212.99

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

382 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 76.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 718.8 ±9.9

3393Horns of Havoc

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 15.68Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 166.94Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 66.06Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.9 ±10.5

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 85.34Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5683R.A.V.E.N.

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX 16.8Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 110.85Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3393, 4469, 2910

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3393, 4469, 2910

Auto

38.8 16%

Teleop

142.3 59%

Endgame

61.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8051, 5683, 4450

/ 100 compat

Projected

213 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8051, 5683, 4450

Auto

40.4 20%

Teleop

112.1 57%

Endgame

45.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score248.7pts

Blue projected score213pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.7
Score range: 175–287
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 575 vs event baseline 211.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

718.8Season APEX421.9

38.8Auto40.4

142.3Teleop112.1

61.2Endgame45.2

9Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	31
teleop	253	92
endgame	58	65
foul	0	5
total	382	193

Result

Final score

382 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 76.7 pts

Match videos

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