Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

515.34 – 367.81

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

507 – 510

Prediction missed · off by 75.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 691.7 ±9.8

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 200.84Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 274.47Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3049BremerTron

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 40.03Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 583.5 ±9.9

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 178.56Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3574HIGH TEKERZ

Season APEX 43Event APEX 8.84Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 180.41Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9023, 2046, 3049

/ 100 compat

Projected

515.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9023, 2046, 3049

Auto

96.5 19%

Teleop

292.9 58%

Endgame

118.8 23%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 360, 3574, 4089

/ 100 compat

Projected

367.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 360, 3574, 4089

Auto

84.9 23%

Teleop

200.5 55%

Endgame

77.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score515.3pts

Blue projected score367.8pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.5
Score range: 331–552
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1017 vs event baseline 208.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

691.7Season APEX583.5

96.5Auto84.9

292.9Teleop200.5

118.8Endgame77.4

0Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	113	106
teleop	227	238
endgame	127	161
foul	40	5
total	507	510

Result

Final score

507 – 510

Prediction missed · off by 75.3 pts

Match videos

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