Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

292.67 – 237.1

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

256 – 321

Prediction missed · off by 60.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.3 ±11.7

2929Emeral Ridge JAGBOTS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 15.01Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 133.74Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 143.92Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 718.8 ±9.9

3393Horns of Havoc

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 11.78Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 163.59Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 61.73Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2929, 4512, 1778

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2929, 4512, 1778

Auto

47.4 17%

Teleop

152.1 54%

Endgame

83.5 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3393, 4469, 2910

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3393, 4469, 2910

Auto

37.6 16%

Teleop

134.5 59%

Endgame

57.3 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score292.7pts

Blue projected score237.1pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.6
Score range: 200–330
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 577 vs event baseline 207.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.3Season APEX718.8

47.4Auto37.6

152.1Teleop134.5

83.5Endgame57.3

29Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	47
teleop	153	186
endgame	52	88
foul	0	0
total	256	321

Result

Final score

256 – 321

Prediction missed · off by 60.3 pts

Match videos

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