Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.91 – 131.44

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 54.7 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174 ±12.7

2929Emeral Ridge JAGBOTS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 54.06Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5683R.A.V.E.N.

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX 13.71Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 63.14Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.5 ±12.8

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 63.14Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3876Mabton LugNutz

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 75.71Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9446C Cubed

Season APEX 71.3Event APEX -7.41Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2929, 5683, 3786

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2929, 5683, 3786

Auto

35.9 28%

Teleop

62.6 49%

Endgame

28.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3663, 3876, 9446

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3663, 3876, 9446

Auto

30.6 24%

Teleop

62.4 50%

Endgame

32.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.9pts

Blue projected score131.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.5
Score range: 98–164
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 190 vs event baseline 185.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174Season APEX263.5

35.9Auto30.6

62.6Teleop62.4

28.1Endgame32.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	36
teleop	19	71
endgame	0	33
foul	0	10
total	40	150

Result

Final score

40 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 54.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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