Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

208.97 – 256.84

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

213 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 480.4 ±11.2

4173Bark Bots

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 45.9Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX -5.71Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 168.78Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.9 ±11.4

7627Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 48.69Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3219TREAD (Trojan Robotics, Engineering, Art, & Design)

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 7.45Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 200.7Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4173, 8896, 4469

/ 100 compat

Projected

209 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4173, 8896, 4469

Auto

33.5 17%

Teleop

111.5 55%

Endgame

57.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7627, 3219, 9023

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7627, 3219, 9023

Auto

38.9 16%

Teleop

150.9 60%

Endgame

60.4 24%

Strengths

· 9023 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score209pts

Blue projected score256.8pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.9
Score range: 173–293
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 523 vs event baseline 197.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

480.4Season APEX385.9

33.5Auto38.9

111.5Teleop150.9

57.1Endgame60.4

0Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	57
teleop	103	112
endgame	31	61
foul	20	80
total	213	310

Result

Final score

213 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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