Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

171.04 – 176.78

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

177 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.4 ±12.4

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 98.84Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4579RoboEagles

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX 21.2Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

949Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 107.3Event APEX 51Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318 ±12.2

2906Sentinel Prime Robotics

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 23.18Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 122.87Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8302⚡️ Ｎｉ-ＴＲＯ ⚡️

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 30.73Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4450, 4579, 949

/ 100 compat

Projected

171 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4450, 4579, 949

Auto

31.0 19%

Teleop

102.7 63%

Endgame

30.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2906, 4512, 8302

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2906, 4512, 8302

Auto

27.5 17%

Teleop

81.8 49%

Endgame

56.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score171pts

Blue projected score176.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.7
Score range: 136–212
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 196.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.4Season APEX318

31Auto27.5

102.7Teleop81.8

30.6Endgame56.6

5Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	51
teleop	75	66
endgame	72	53
foul	0	30
total	177	200

Result

Final score

177 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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