Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.92 – 88.21

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 72.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 159.8 ±13.3

5683R.A.V.E.N.

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX -4.92Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9446C Cubed

Season APEX 71.3Event APEX 31.03Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2980Whidbey Island Wildcats

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 31.81Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 169.9 ±13.3

3876Mabton LugNutz

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 35.36Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5295Aldernating Current

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 43.44Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3574HIGH TEKERZ

Season APEX 43Event APEX 9.41Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5683, 9446, 2980

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5683, 9446, 2980

Auto

16.7 29%

Teleop

10.2 18%

Endgame

29.8 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3876, 5295, 3574

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3876, 5295, 3574

Auto

24.7 32%

Teleop

37.2 48%

Endgame

16.3 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.9pts

Blue projected score88.2pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.3
Score range: 22–124
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 198.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

159.8Season APEX169.9

16.7Auto24.7

10.2Teleop37.2

29.8Endgame16.3

28Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	14
teleop	71	12
endgame	56	2
foul	0	5
total	148	33

Result

Final score

148 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 72.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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