Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.72 – 221.2

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

192 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 61 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 495.4 ±12.4

11347Bronco Brigade

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 28.93Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 62.87Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3219TREAD (Trojan Robotics, Engineering, Art, & Design)

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 1.92Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 447.8 ±11.7

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 164.56Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10455Bison Dynamics

Season APEX 89Event APEX 25.43Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8302⚡️ Ｎｉ-ＴＲＯ ⚡️

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 31.21Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11347, 2910, 3219

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11347, 2910, 3219

Auto

0.3 0%

Teleop

49.6 56%

Endgame

38.6 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4469, 10455, 8302

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4469, 10455, 8302

Auto

25.3 12%

Teleop

139.8 64%

Endgame

53.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.7pts

Blue projected score221.2pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -127.5
Score range: 59–256
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 437 vs event baseline 194.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

495.4Season APEX447.8

0.3Auto25.3

49.6Teleop139.8

38.6Endgame53.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	39
teleop	99	137
endgame	79	69
foul	0	0
total	192	245

Result

Final score

192 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 61 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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