Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

184.06 – 211.97

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

261 – 193

Prediction missed · off by 48 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365 ±11.7

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 114.85Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8303GatorBytes

Season APEX 31.7Event APEX 9.62Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 59.59Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.4 ±11.7

5683R.A.V.E.N.

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX -3.64Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 171.72Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5295Aldernating Current

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 43.89Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4512, 8303, 8051

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4512, 8303, 8051

Auto

21.4 12%

Teleop

104.3 61%

Endgame

45.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5683, 4089, 5295

/ 100 compat

Projected

212 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5683, 4089, 5295

Auto

42.5 20%

Teleop

122.4 58%

Endgame

44.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score184.1pts

Blue projected score212pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.9
Score range: 149–247
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 454 vs event baseline 195.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365Season APEX360.4

21.4Auto42.5

104.3Teleop122.4

45.9Endgame44.8

24Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	70
teleop	119	103
endgame	74	20
foul	25	0
total	261	193

Result

Final score

261 – 193

Prediction missed · off by 48 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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