Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

373.25 – 170.21

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

305 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 70.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504 ±11.4

3049BremerTron

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 47.36Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 276.37Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 49.52Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.7 ±11.7

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 136.52Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX -0.84Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9446C Cubed

Season APEX 71.3Event APEX 34.53Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3049, 2046, 3786

/ 100 compat

Projected

373.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3049, 2046, 3786

Auto

74.1 20%

Teleop

208.7 56%

Endgame

88.1 24%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10079, 8896, 9446

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10079, 8896, 9446

Auto

44.5 28%

Teleop

84.3 53%

Endgame

30.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score373.3pts

Blue projected score170.2pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 203
Score range: 135–408
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 195.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504Season APEX315.7

74.1Auto44.5

208.7Teleop84.3

88.1Endgame30.8

27Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	28
teleop	137	51
endgame	79	19
foul	0	0
total	305	98

Result

Final score

305 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 70.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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