Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.45 – 132.28

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 140.7 ±13.3

4579RoboEagles

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX 27.52Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3876Mabton LugNutz

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 42.48Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3393Horns of Havoc

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 15.45Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.2 ±12.4

2927NEST Robotics

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 24.4Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2929Emeral Ridge JAGBOTS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 2.82Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 105.06Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4579, 3876, 3393

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4579, 3876, 3393

Auto

25.7 33%

Teleop

31.0 39%

Endgame

22.3 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2927, 2929, 4450

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2927, 2929, 4450

Auto

31.8 26%

Teleop

57.5 46%

Endgame

34.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.5pts

Blue projected score132.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.8
Score range: 49–168
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 197.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

140.7Season APEX347.2

25.7Auto31.8

31Teleop57.5

22.3Endgame34.9

4Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	26
teleop	18	72
endgame	8	8
foul	0	0
total	42	106

Result

Final score

42 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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