Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.68 – 92.51

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 11.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 124.9 ±13.3

8302⚡️ Ｎｉ-ＴＲＯ ⚡️

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 29.18Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2927NEST Robotics

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 10.4Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4579RoboEagles

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX 20.1Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.8 ±13.9

8303GatorBytes

Season APEX 31.7Event APEX 10.48Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4173Bark Bots

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 49.04Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2980Whidbey Island Wildcats

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 32.99Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8302, 2927, 4579

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8302, 2927, 4579

Auto

11.5 20%

Teleop

23.0 41%

Endgame

21.9 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8303, 4173, 2980

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8303, 4173, 2980

Auto

19.7 20%

Teleop

39.0 40%

Endgame

37.9 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score59.7pts

Blue projected score92.5pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.8
Score range: 20–133
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 219.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

124.9Season APEX182.8

11.5Auto19.7

23Teleop39

21.9Endgame37.9

25Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	23
teleop	21	62
endgame	14	24
foul	5	0
total	54	109

Result

Final score

54 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 11.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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