Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.69 – 184.11

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

276 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 93.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.2 ±12.4

5295Aldernating Current

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 25.91Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 46.7Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

949Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 107.3Event APEX 31.08Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.1 ±11.7

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 57.5Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3219TREAD (Trojan Robotics, Engineering, Art, & Design)

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX -2.77Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 129.38Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5295, 2910, 949

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5295, 2910, 949

Auto

15.1 15%

Teleop

74.2 73%

Endgame

11.8 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8051, 3219, 3663

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8051, 3219, 3663

Auto

44.5 25%

Teleop

90.1 51%

Endgame

40.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.7pts

Blue projected score184.1pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.4
Score range: 68–220
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 475 vs event baseline 198.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.2Season APEX328.1

15.1Auto44.5

74.2Teleop90.1

11.8Endgame40.8

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	49
teleop	150	113
endgame	72	37
foul	15	0
total	276	199

Result

Final score

276 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 93.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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