Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

435.72 – 231.01

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

447 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 23.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 616 ±9.8

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 111.03Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 191.5Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 133.19Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 412.3 ±12.4

3049BremerTron

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 46.82Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 161.84Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2927NEST Robotics

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 22.35Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4512, 360, 10079

/ 100 compat

Projected

435.7 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4512, 360, 10079

Auto

76.2 18%

Teleop

246.4 57%

Endgame

107.4 25%

Strengths

· 360 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3049, 4469, 2927

/ 100 compat

Projected

231 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3049, 4469, 2927

Auto

33.5 15%

Teleop

144.8 64%

Endgame

49.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.75 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score435.7pts

Blue projected score231pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 204.7
Score range: 196–471
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 714 vs event baseline 196.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

616Season APEX412.3

76.2Auto33.5

246.4Teleop144.8

107.4Endgame49

22Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	38
teleop	234	122
endgame	120	107
foul	0	0
total	447	267

Result

Final score

447 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 23.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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