Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.16 – 3.72

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

288 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 68.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 513.6 ±11.2

2906Sentinel Prime Robotics

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 15.17Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 100.99Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 111Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.7 ±12.2

5683R.A.V.E.N.

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX -11.3Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX -7.59Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4579RoboEagles

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX 22.61Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2906, 4450, 1778

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2906, 4450, 1778

Auto

46.6 21%

Teleop

121.8 55%

Endgame

51.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5683, 8896, 4579

/ 100 compat

Projected

3.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5683, 8896, 4579

Auto

4.4 0%

Teleop

-15.1 100%

Endgame

1.5 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.63 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score227.2pts

Blue projected score3.7pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 223.4
Score range: -31–262
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 196.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

513.6Season APEX148.7

46.6Auto4.4

121.8Teleop-15.1

51.1Endgame1.5

52Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	16
teleop	167	32
endgame	67	32
foul	0	0
total	288	80

Result

Final score

288 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 68.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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