Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.82 – 250.32

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.8 ±12.7

4682CyBears

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 13.25Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8302⚡️ Ｎｉ-ＴＲＯ ⚡️

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 40.35Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5295Aldernating Current

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 31.22Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 458.6 ±11.1

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 48.64Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 155.56Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7627Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 46.12Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4682, 8302, 5295

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4682, 8302, 5295

Auto

0.0 0%

Teleop

58.7 67%

Endgame

28.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3786, 4469, 7627

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3786, 4469, 7627

Auto

39.1 16%

Teleop

142.8 57%

Endgame

69.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.8pts

Blue projected score250.3pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -165.5
Score range: 50–285
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 375 vs event baseline 194.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.8Season APEX458.6

0Auto39.1

58.7Teleop142.8

28.7Endgame69.6

25Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	50
teleop	31	177
endgame	14	75
foul	10	0
total	73	302

Result

Final score

73 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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