Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

374.17 – 179.74

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

428 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 702 ±9.3

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 171.73Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 95.54Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 106.9Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282 ±12.2

11347Bronco Brigade

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 28.08Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3393Horns of Havoc

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 17.55Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 134.11Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4089, 4450, 4512

/ 100 compat

Projected

374.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4089, 4450, 4512

Auto

63.6 18%

Teleop

208.1 57%

Endgame

91.6 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11347, 3393, 10079

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11347, 3393, 10079

Auto

37.7 21%

Teleop

104.7 59%

Endgame

34.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.72 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score374.2pts

Blue projected score179.7pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 194.4
Score range: 145–409
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 606 vs event baseline 195.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

702Season APEX282

63.6Auto37.7

208.1Teleop104.7

91.6Endgame34.4

46Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	51
teleop	273	97
endgame	86	25
foul	5	5
total	428	178

Result

Final score

428 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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