Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.8 – 169.44

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.2 ±13.3

5683R.A.V.E.N.

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX 15.66Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10455Bison Dynamics

Season APEX 89Event APEX 30.43Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2906Sentinel Prime Robotics

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 22.71Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.3 ±11.6

3393Horns of Havoc

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 25.72Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 32.5Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 111.22Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5683, 10455, 2906

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5683, 10455, 2906

Auto

15.2 24%

Teleop

30.9 48%

Endgame

17.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3393, 3786, 3663

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3393, 3786, 3663

Auto

57.6 35%

Teleop

81.7 49%

Endgame

27.6 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.8pts

Blue projected score169.4pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100.6
Score range: 29–209
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 219.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.2Season APEX262.3

15.2Auto57.6

30.9Teleop81.7

17.9Endgame27.6

26Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	51
teleop	21	111
endgame	1	59
foul	15	0
total	48	221

Result

Final score

48 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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