Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

163.12 – 208.36

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

233 – 187

Prediction missed · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.7 ±12.8

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 123.63Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4173Bark Bots

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 31.62Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2906Sentinel Prime Robotics

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 7.87Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306.3 ±12.8

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 114.57Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2980Whidbey Island Wildcats

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 44.93Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3876Mabton LugNutz

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 48.86Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3663, 4173, 2906

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3663, 4173, 2906

Auto

57.4 36%

Teleop

72.2 45%

Endgame

31.2 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1778, 2980, 3876

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1778, 2980, 3876

Auto

48.2 23%

Teleop

102.7 48%

Endgame

62.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score163.1pts

Blue projected score208.4pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.2
Score range: 128–243
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 193.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.7Season APEX306.3

57.4Auto48.2

72.2Teleop102.7

31.2Endgame62.6

0Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	48
teleop	115	88
endgame	59	51
foul	5	0
total	233	187

Result

Final score

233 – 187

Prediction missed · off by 45.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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