Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.77 – 84.66

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

15 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 137.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.7 ±11.1

3070Team Pronto 3070

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 37.94Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 181.41Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5683R.A.V.E.N.

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX 12.42Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.5 ±13.3

10455Bison Dynamics

Season APEX 89Event APEX 16.67Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

949Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 107.3Event APEX 23.64Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 44.35Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3070, 4469, 5683

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3070, 4469, 5683

Auto

34.6 15%

Teleop

149.0 64%

Endgame

49.8 21%

Strengths

· 4469 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10455, 949, 3786

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10455, 949, 3786

Auto

24.5 30%

Teleop

52.3 64%

Endgame

4.7 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score231.8pts

Blue projected score84.7pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.1
Score range: 50–267
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 195.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.7Season APEX282.5

34.6Auto24.5

149Teleop52.3

49.8Endgame4.7

68Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	2	35
teleop	8	68
endgame	5	40
foul	0	0
total	15	143

Result

Final score

15 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 137.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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