Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

272.16 – 116.47

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

252 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 736.5 ±9.8

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 57.41Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 107.11Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 107.64Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205.7 ±13.9

11347Bronco Brigade

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 36.67Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4579RoboEagles

Season APEX 38.2Event APEX 32.98Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4173Bark Bots

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 46.82Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2910, 1778, 4512

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2910, 1778, 4512

Auto

35.8 14%

Teleop

147.3 56%

Endgame

78.3 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11347, 4579, 4173

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11347, 4579, 4173

Auto

18.2 17%

Teleop

54.2 50%

Endgame

36.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score272.2pts

Blue projected score116.5pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 155.7
Score range: 80–308
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 200.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

736.5Season APEX205.7

35.8Auto18.2

147.3Teleop54.2

78.3Endgame36.3

85Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	11
teleop	162	5
endgame	73	8
foul	0	5
total	252	29

Result

Final score

252 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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